Those trying to avoid natural disasters and the fallout from climate change might want to move to the Southwest.
Counties in New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah have the lowest risk of environmental peril, according to a recent study from CoreLogic, a real estate data firm. The study analyzed the risk of natural disasters over the next 30 years, to the nation’s 154 million properties. Wildfires, tornadoes, inland flooding, severe thunderstorms, winter storms, earthquakes, hurricanes, and storm surges were included in the analysis.
“Generally, good elevation shields places from thunderstorms, wildfires, and flooding,” says John Rogers, chief innovation officer at CoreLogic.
Other factors—such as soil type, proximity to flammable brush, and building codes and types—also play a part.
Homes in the hills in New Mexico
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Most of the safest counties are in Utah and Colorado. But the least vulnerable county in the nation is McKinley, NM, about two and a half hours west of Santa Fe, NM, and two hours northwest of Albuquerque, NM. The median home list price in McKinley County was $216,250 in February—nearly half of the national median of $415,000.
The county was named for former President William McKinley. The famed Route 66 scenic byway runs through it, and it is predominantly home to Native Americans from three tribes.
If climate change worsens, CoreLogic predicts McKinley will still top the list of the safest counties in 2050. It will be followed by Conejos, CO; Summit, CO; Duchesne, UT; Saguache, CO; Spokane, WA; Emery, UT; Eagle, CO; San Juan, CO; and Chaffee, CO.
Since 1980, there have typically been about eight major weather disasters in the United States annually that cause at least $1 billion in losses. However, over the past five years, there has been an average of 18 disasters of that magnitude each year.
“The frequency and intensity of major weather events, like hurricanes, wildfires, is increasing,” says Rogers.
And while homebuyers are beginning to pay attention to how natural disasters and climate change might affect their properties and communities, places such as Florida remain popular, despite the significant hurricane risk there.
“It’s important from a homeowner’s perspective to protect their homes,” says Rogers. “It’s one of the biggest investments of their lives.”
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